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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Musculoskelet. Disord.
Sec. Spine Conditions
Volume 3 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fmscd.2025.1566259
Analysis of the Incidence, Prevalence, and Disability Trends of Spinal Cord Injury in China from 1990--2021 and Predictions of Changes for the Next 15 Years: A Systematic Analysis of the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study
Provisionally acceptedBackground: Spinal cord injury is one of the leading causes of premature death and long-term disability. Currently, studies on the global burden of disease have focused mainly on macrolevel assessments of SCI at the global and regional levels，The burden of SCI in China is not optimistic on a global scale.Objective: This study aims to delineate the temporal trends of SCI in China from 1990 to 2021, focusing on incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability, and to forecast the developmental trends for the next 15 years. By analyzing these data, the study seeks to uncover the patterns and characteristics of SCI occurrence and progression, thereby providing a foundation for medical institutions to devise targeted intervention measures and management strategies to alleviate the escalating healthcare burden. The data indicators discussed include the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), and age-standardized years 3 / 37 lived with disability rate (ASYR). Finally, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was employed to predict the development trends of SCI over the next 15 years.Results: Compared to 1990, China's overall SCI incidence increased from 6.07 to 6.21 per 100,000 (2.31% rise), while prevalence rose from 149.84 to 151.69 per 100,000 (1.23% increase). In contrast, the YLD rate decreased from 52.09 to 41.61 per 100,000 (20.12% drop). From 1990 to 2021, male indicators consistently exceeded female indicators, but after age 80, female incidence, prevalence, and YLD rates surpassed those of males. Overall, SCI data increased with age. According to the ARIMA model, China's overall SCI incidence, prevalence, and YLD rates are projected to decline over the next 15 years, though female prevalence may slightly increase.Over the past 30 years, the disease burden of SCI in China has continued to rise. With an aging population, the affected demographic is shifting from middle-aged to elderly individuals.Although projections suggest potential improvements in the future burden of SCI, public health still faces significant challenges.
Keywords: spinal cord injury, disease burden, Global Burden of Disease (GBD), Incidence, Prevalence, Years Lived with Disability (YLD)
Received: 28 Jan 2025; Accepted: 19 Mar 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 赵, 李, 黄, 赵, 周 and 赵. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence:
斌 赵, 山西医科大学第二医院, 山西太原, China
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