AUTHOR=Bard Jonathan E. , Jiang Na , Emerson Jamaal , Bartz Madeleine , Lamb Natalie A. , Marzullo Brandon J. , Pohlman Alyssa , Boccolucci Amanda , Nowak Norma J. , Yergeau Donald A. , Crooks Andrew T. , Surtees Jennifer A. TITLE=Genomic profiling and spatial SEIR modeling of COVID-19 transmission in Western New York JOURNAL=Frontiers in Microbiology VOLUME=15 YEAR=2024 URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/microbiology/articles/10.3389/fmicb.2024.1416580 DOI=10.3389/fmicb.2024.1416580 ISSN=1664-302X ABSTRACT=

The COVID-19 pandemic has prompted an unprecedented global effort to understand and mitigate the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. In this study, we present a comprehensive analysis of COVID-19 in Western New York (WNY), integrating individual patient-level genomic sequencing data with a spatially informed agent-based disease Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) computational model. The integration of genomic and spatial data enables a multi-faceted exploration of the factors influencing the transmission patterns of COVID-19, including genetic variations in the viral genomes, population density, and movement dynamics in New York State (NYS). Our genomic analyses provide insights into the genetic heterogeneity of SARS-CoV-2 within a single lineage, at region-specific resolutions, while our population analyses provide models for SARS-CoV-2 lineage transmission. Together, our findings shed light on localized dynamics of the pandemic, revealing potential cross-county transmission networks. This interdisciplinary approach, bridging genomics and spatial modeling, contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of COVID-19 dynamics. The results of this study have implications for future public health strategies, including guiding targeted interventions and resource allocations to control the spread of similar viruses.