AUTHOR=Liu Zishuai , Jiang Zhouling , Zhang Ligang , Xue Xiaoyu , Zhao Chenxi , Xu Yanli , Zhang Wei , Lin Ling , Chen Zhihai TITLE=A model based on meta-analysis to evaluate poor prognosis of patients with severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome JOURNAL=Frontiers in Microbiology VOLUME=14 YEAR=2024 URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/microbiology/articles/10.3389/fmicb.2023.1307960 DOI=10.3389/fmicb.2023.1307960 ISSN=1664-302X ABSTRACT=Background

Early identification of risk factors associated with poor prognosis in Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) patients is crucial to improving patient survival.

Method

Retrieve literature related to fatal risk factors in SFTS patients in the database, extract the risk factors and corresponding RRs and 95% CIs, and merge them. Statistically significant factors were included in the model, and stratified and assigned a corresponding score. Finally, a validation cohort from Yantai Qishan Hospital in 2021 was used to verify its predictive ability.

Result

A total of 24 articles were included in the meta-analysis. The model includes six risk factors: age, hemorrhagic manifestations, encephalopathy, Scr and BUN. The analysis of lasso regression and multivariate logistic regression shows that model score is an independent risk factor (OR = 1.032, 95% CI 1.002–1.063, p = 0.034). The model had an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.779 (95% CI 0.669–0.889, P<0.001). The validation cohort was divided into four risk groups with cut-off values. Compared with the low-medium risk group, the mortality rate of high-risk and very high-risk patients was more significant (RR =5.677, 95% CI 4.961–6.496, P<0.001).

Conclusion

The prediction model for the fatal outcome of SFTS patients has shown positive outcomes.

Systematic review registration:https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/ (CRD42023453157).