AUTHOR=Suzuki Yoshiyuki , Doan Yen Hai , Kimura Hirokazu , Shinomiya Hiroto , Shirabe Komei , Katayama Kazuhiko 

TITLE=Predicting Directions of Changes in Genotype Proportions Between Norovirus Seasons in Japan

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Microbiology

VOLUME=10

YEAR=2019

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/microbiology/articles/10.3389/fmicb.2019.00116

DOI=10.3389/fmicb.2019.00116

ISSN=1664-302X

ABSTRACT=<p>The norovirus forecasting system (NOROCAST) has been developed for predicting directions of changes in genotype proportions between human norovirus (HuNoV) seasons in Japan through modeling herd immunity to structural protein 1 (VP1). Here 404 nearly complete genomic sequences of HuNoV were analyzed to examine whether the performance of NOROCAST could be improved by modeling herd immunity to VP2 and non-structural proteins (NS) in addition to VP1. It was found that the applicability of NOROCAST may be extended by compensating for unavailable sequence data and observed genotype proportions of 0 in each season. Incorporation of herd immunity to VP2 and NS did not appear to improve the performance of NOROCAST, suggesting that VP1 may be a suitable target of vaccines.</p>