AUTHOR=Wallis Robert S. TITLE=Mathematical Models of Tuberculosis Reactivation and Relapse JOURNAL=Frontiers in Microbiology VOLUME=7 YEAR=2016 URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/microbiology/articles/10.3389/fmicb.2016.00669 DOI=10.3389/fmicb.2016.00669 ISSN=1664-302X ABSTRACT=

The natural history of human infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) is highly variable, as is the response to treatment of active tuberculosis. There is presently no direct means to identify individuals in whom Mtb infection has been eradicated, whether by a bactericidal immune response or sterilizing antimicrobial chemotherapy. Mathematical models can assist in such circumstances by measuring or predicting events that cannot be directly observed. The 3 models discussed in this review illustrate instances in which mathematical models were used to identify individuals with innate resistance to Mtb infection, determine the etiologic mechanism of tuberculosis in patients treated with tumor necrosis factor blockers, and predict the risk of relapse in persons undergoing tuberculosis treatment. These examples illustrate the power of various types of mathematic models to increase knowledge and thereby inform interventions in the present global tuberculosis epidemic.