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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Med.
Sec. Pulmonary Medicine
Volume 12 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fmed.2025.1529636

Temporal trends and future projections of incidence rate and mortality for asthma in China: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Provisionally accepted
Xi Chen Xi Chen 1,2Dandan Ma Dandan Ma 2*Hangyu Li Hangyu Li 2*Yilin Liu Yilin Liu 2Guixing Xu Guixing Xu 3Xinyu Deng Xinyu Deng 2*Qi Li Qi Li 2*Junqi Li Junqi Li 2*Hui Pan Hui Pan 1*
  • 1 Department of Rehabilitation, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
  • 2 Acupuncture and Tuina School, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu, China
  • 3 Hospital of Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu, Sichuan Province, China

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    Background: Asthma poses a significant public health burden in China, affecting millions with substantial incidence and mortality. Understanding the trends and future projections of asthma incidence and mortality is crucial for healthcare planning. Methods: We analyzed asthma incidence and mortality data sourced from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study from 1990 to 2021, calculated the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates (ASIR and ASMR) and the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC), meanwhile, employed Joinpoint regression model to assess the trends. The age-period-cohort model was applied to estimate the effects of the age, period, and cohort on the incidence and mortality. Finally, future asthma trends for the next 25 years were predicted utilizing the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model.Results: Over the past three decades, the incidence rate declined in waves while the mortality declined steadily. The ASIR of asthma decreased from 524.81 to 364.17 and the ASMR declined from 5.82 to 1.47. ASIR and ASMR are consistently higher in males than females during this period. The effect attributable to age on incidence was higher for the younger age group while the mortality was higher for older. The period ratio rate of incidence and mortality declined with the calendar year, and the corrections between birth cohort and the risk of incidence and mortality were negative. Our projections indicate that the ASIR and ASMR will continue to decrease by 2046, with expected rates of 330 and 0.69 respectively. Instead, the absolute number of asthma incidence cases and deaths may increase to approximately 4.5 million and 80,000 respectively. Conclusions: Although asthma incidence rates and mortality have generally declined in China, the burden remains significant, especially among vulnerable groups, with higher rates in males.

    Keywords: disease burden, Asthma, prediction, Age-standardized rate, Incidence, Mortality

    Received: 05 Dec 2024; Accepted: 14 Jan 2025.

    Copyright: © 2025 Chen, Ma, Li, Liu, Xu, Deng, Li, Li and Pan. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence:
    Dandan Ma, Acupuncture and Tuina School, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu, China
    Hangyu Li, Acupuncture and Tuina School, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu, China
    Xinyu Deng, Acupuncture and Tuina School, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu, China
    Qi Li, Acupuncture and Tuina School, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu, China
    Junqi Li, Acupuncture and Tuina School, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu, China
    Hui Pan, Department of Rehabilitation, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China

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