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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Med.
Sec. Precision Medicine
Volume 11 - 2024 | doi: 10.3389/fmed.2024.1472996
This article is part of the Research Topic Re-visiting Risk Factors for Cardiometabolic Diseases: Towards a New Epidemiological Frontier View all 5 articles

Effect of Air Pollution on the Global Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases and Forecasting Future Trends of the Related Metrics: A Systematic Analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Provisionally accepted
Qingsong Mao Qingsong Mao 1Xiaoyi Zhu Xiaoyi Zhu 2Xinyi Zhang Xinyi Zhang 3Yu-zhe Kong Yu-zhe Kong 2*
  • 1 People's Hospital of Chongqing Banan District, Banan, Chongqing, China
  • 2 Xiangya School of Medicine, Central South University, Changsha, China
  • 3 College of Teacher Education, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang Province, China

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    This study assesses the worldwide cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden attributed to air pollution, utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.We explored the impact of air pollution on CVDs globally, regionally, and nationally, while considering correlations with age, gender, and Socio-Demographic Index (SDI). A decomposition analysis was conducted to discern the contributions of aging, population growth, and epidemiological shifts to the changes in Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2021. Additionally, an ARIMA model was used to forecast the future CVD burden through 2050.In 2021, air pollution was responsible for approximately 2.46 million deaths and 58.3 million Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) attributable to CVDs, with a discernible decrease over the period studied.The greatest impacts were observed in individuals aged 75-79 and over 80, particularly among males. The decomposition analysis indicated that shifts in epidemiology were the primary factors driving these changes. Future projections suggest potential increases in mortality and DALY rates in regions with low and high-middle SDI, alongside rising age-standardized death and mortality rates in high SDI areas.These findings underscore the urgency of implementing targeted CVD prevention and air pollution control strategies to mitigate the impact on public health.

    Keywords: Cardiovascular Diseases, Air Pollution, Mortality forecasting, Epidemiology, disease burden

    Received: 30 Jul 2024; Accepted: 23 Sep 2024.

    Copyright: © 2024 Mao, Zhu, Zhang and Kong. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence: Yu-zhe Kong, Xiangya School of Medicine, Central South University, Changsha, China

    Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.