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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Med.
Sec. Intensive Care Medicine and Anesthesiology
Volume 11 - 2024 | doi: 10.3389/fmed.2024.1411288
This article is part of the Research Topic Diagnosis and Management of Acute, Chronic, and Autoimmune Pancreatitis View all 3 articles

Development and Validation of a Nomogram Combining Pain Score with Laboratory Indicators for Predicting Persistent Organ Failure in Acute Pancreatitis: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Provisionally accepted
Jiayu Xing Jiayu Xing Musen Xu Musen Xu *Jiale Xu Jiale Xu *Jiao Liu Jiao Liu *Fang He Fang He *
  • Shanxi Bethune Hospital, Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, China

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    Acute pancreatitis is an inflammatory disease that can lead to persistent organ failure (POF), which is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Early prediction of POF in AP can significantly improve patient outcomes.To develop and validate a nomogram that combines pain score with laboratory indicators for predicting POF in patients with AP. Methods A retrospective cohort study was conducted, including patients diagnosed with AP. Pain score and laboratory indicators were collected within the first 24 hours of admission. A nomogram was developed using logistic regression models and validated in a separate cohort. Results There were 807 patients in the training cohort and 375 patients in the internal validation cohort.Multivariate logistic regression demonstrated that pain score, serum creatinine, hematocrit, serum calcium, and serum albumin were independent risk factors for the incidence of POF in patients with AP. The area under the curve of the nomogram constructed from the above factors were 0.924, respectively. The model demonstrated good calibration and discrimination in both the development and validation cohorts.The nomogram had a good performance in predicting POF in patients with AP and can be used to guide clinical decision-making.

    Keywords: acute pancreatitis, Persistent organ failure, nomogram, Pain score, Prediction model

    Received: 04 Apr 2024; Accepted: 26 Jul 2024.

    Copyright: © 2024 Xing, Xu, Xu, Liu and He. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence:
    Musen Xu, Shanxi Bethune Hospital, Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, China
    Jiale Xu, Shanxi Bethune Hospital, Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, China
    Jiao Liu, Shanxi Bethune Hospital, Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, China
    Fang He, Shanxi Bethune Hospital, Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, China

    Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.