The elderly population constitutes one of the fastest-growing demographic groups globally. Within this population, mild to moderate traumatic brain injuries (TBI) resulting from ground level falls (GLFs) are prevalent and pose significant challenges. Between 50 and 80% of TBIs in older individuals are due to GLFs. These incidents result in more severe outcomes and extended recovery periods for the elderly, even when controlling for injury severity. Given the increasing incidence of such injuries it becomes essential to identify the key factors that predict complications and in-hospital mortality. Therefore, the aim of this study was to pinpoint the top predictors of complications and in-hospital mortality in geriatric patients who have experienced a moderate TBI following a GLF.
Data were obtained from the American College of Surgeons’ Trauma Quality Improvement Program database. A moderate TBI was defined as a head AIS ≤ 3 with a Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) 9–13, and an AIS ≤ 2 in all other body regions. Potential predictors of complications and in-hospital mortality were included in a logistic regression model and ranked using the permutation importance method.
A total of 7,489 patients with a moderate TBI were included in the final analyses. 6.5% suffered a complication and 6.2% died prior to discharge. The top five predictors of complications were the need for neurosurgical intervention, the Revised Cardiac Risk Index, coagulopathy, the spine abbreviated injury severity scale (AIS), and the injury severity score. The top five predictors of mortality were head AIS, age, GCS on admission, the need for neurosurgical intervention, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.
When predicting both complications and in-hospital mortality in geriatric patients who have suffered a moderate traumatic brain injury after a ground level fall, the most important factors to consider are the need for neurosurgical intervention, cardiac risk, and measures of injury severity. This may allow for better identification of at-risk patients, and at the same time resulting in a more equitable allocation of resources.