AUTHOR=Peng Ying , Yang Tianlong , Zhu Yuanzhao , Hu Qingqing , Wang Yao , Zhao Zeyu , Rui Jia , Lin Shengnan , Liu Xingchun , Xu Jingwen , Yang Meng , Deng Bin , Huang Jiefeng , Liu Weikang , Luo Li , Liu Chan , Li Zhuoyang , Li Peihua , Kong Deguang , Yang Xiaobing , Chen Tianmu TITLE=Estimating the Transmissibility of Mumps: A Modelling Study in Wuhan City, China JOURNAL=Frontiers in Medicine VOLUME=8 YEAR=2021 URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/medicine/articles/10.3389/fmed.2021.683720 DOI=10.3389/fmed.2021.683720 ISSN=2296-858X ABSTRACT=

Despite the adoption of a national immunization program in China, the incidence of mumps remains high. This study aimed to describe the epidemiological characteristics, including the time, region, occupation, and age, of mumps in Wuhan from 2005 to 2018 and to evaluate its transmissibility. In this study, the susceptible–exposed–infectious–asymptomatic–recovered (SEIAR) model fitted the actual incidence data of mumps. The effective reproduction number (Rt) was used to evaluate and compare the transmission capacity in different areas. From 2005 to 2018, there were 36,415 cases. The incidence of mumps was highest among people aged 5–10 years (460.02 per 100,000). The SEIAR model fitted the reported mumps data well (P < 0.01). The median transmissibility (Rt) was 1.04 (range = 0–2.50). There were two peak spreads every year (from March to May and from October to December). The Rt peak always appeared in the first 2 months of the peak incidence rate. The peak time of the epidemic spread of mumps was 1–2 months earlier than the peak incidence rate. The prevention and control measures of vaccination for children aged 5–10 years should be taken before the peak transmission capacity each year, 2 months before the peak of the outbreak, to reduce the spread of mumps.