94% of researchers rate our articles as excellent or good
Learn more about the work of our research integrity team to safeguard the quality of each article we publish.
Find out more
ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Mar. Sci.
Sec. Marine Biology
Volume 12 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fmars.2025.1554232
Predicted Habitat and Areas of Ecological Significance Shifts of Top Predators in the South Shetland Islands under Climate Changes
Provisionally accepted- 1Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Biodiversity Sciences and Ecological Engineering, College of Life Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
- 2Key Laboratory for Polar Science of the Ministry of Natural Resources, Polar Research Institute of China, Shanghai, China
- 3Antarctic Great Wall Ecology National Observation and Research Station, Polar Research Institute of China, Ministry of Natural Resources, Shanghai, China
- 4State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing, Beijing Municipality, China
- 5Third Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Xiamen, China
Select one of your emails
You have multiple emails registered with Frontiers:
Notify me on publication
Please enter your email address:
If you already have an account, please login
You don't have a Frontiers account ? You can register here
The South Shetland Islands, a critical area for primary productivity within the Southern Ocean, are significantly affected by global climate change. Seabirds and marine mammals, highly sensitive to ecological changes, are considered sentinel species within the ecosystem. Monitoring top predators and identifying Areas of Ecological Significance (AES) are essential for enhancing biodiversity conservation effectiveness and addressing future climate changes. This study employed the MaxEnt model and Zonation method to predict the distribution of suitable habitats and AES for 14 top predators in the South Shetland Islands under current and future climate scenarios. Key findings include: 1) The spatial distribution of top predators in the South Shetland Islands is predominantly influenced by bathymetry, mixed layer thickness (Mlotst), and sea ice concentration (SIC). 2) The highly suitable habitats for the Gentoo Penguin (Pygoscelis papua), Humpback Whale (Megaptera novaeangliae), and Light-mantled Albatross (Phoebetria palpebrata) are expected to decrease under various future scenarios. 3) The AES in the South Shetland Islands are predominantly concentrated along the southern coastal areas. 4) The AES on the western side of the islands are projected to undergo significant fluctuations, while those on the eastern side are likely to exhibit minor changes, with the central area remaining relatively stable.
Keywords: South Shetland Island, Climate change, Top predators, Suitable habitat, Areas of Ecological Significance (AESs)
Received: 01 Jan 2025; Accepted: 24 Mar 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Yan, Dai, Liu, Zhong, Gao, Cheng, Deng and Wu. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Denghui Yan, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Biodiversity Sciences and Ecological Engineering, College of Life Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.