Land use change projection and driving factors exploration in Hainan Island based on the PLUS model

Jiahui Liu ¹ Yaoqi Hou ^2* Fangyi Li ^1* Binbin Zheng ^3* Zeheng Chen ^1* Fa Zheng ¹ Xiaohai Zhang ^1* Rui Yu ^3*

• ¹ Haikou Marine Geological Survey Center, China Geological Survey, Haikou, China
• ² School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin, China
• ³ School of Ecology, Hainan University, Haikou, Hainan Province, China

Land resources play a vital role in national economic and social development. Hainan Province faces the challenge of balancing land use with conservation while striving to develop a high-quality free tra de port. This study utilised the GlobeLand30 dataset, along with data on temperature, precipitation, th e digital elevation model (DEM), slope, soil, gross domestic product (GDP), and population, to apply the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model. This model was used to analyse land use c hanges on Hainan Island from 2000 to 2040, to investigate the relationship between land use growth a nd its driving factors. Key findings include the following: (1) during 2000~2020, forests and cultivate d land were the predominant land use type, while wetlands and artificial surfaces increased by two ti mes, and bare land remained stable; (2) temperature significantly influenced cultivated land, forests, a nd grasslands, while GDP and population growth impacted water bodies and artificial surfaces; (3) th e predicted land use map for 2020 achieved high accuracy (Kappa = 0.85); (4) by 2040, forests and cu ltivated land are expected to remain dominant, with grasslands and artificial surfaces decreasing, whil e wetlands and bare land are projected to increase. This research provides valuable insights for sustai nable land use policy development in Hainan.