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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Mar. Sci.
Sec. Marine Affairs and Policy
Volume 11 - 2024 | doi: 10.3389/fmars.2024.1510791
This article is part of the Research Topic Challenges and Solutions in Forecasting and Decision-Making in Marine Economy and Management View all 14 articles

A novel comprehensive system for analyzing and evaluating storm surge disaster chain based on complex networks

Provisionally accepted
Hongbo Guo Hongbo Guo 1Chong Huang Chong Huang 2Caixia Zhang Caixia Zhang 3Qinglong Shao Qinglong Shao 4*
  • 1 Business School, Shandong Management University, Jinan, China, jinan, China
  • 2 Institute of Marine Economy and Management, Shandong University of Finance and Economics, Jinan, China, jinan, China
  • 3 School of Urban Planning and Design, Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School, shenzhen, China
  • 4 Qilu Aerospace Information Research Institute, Jinan, China

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    Against the backdrop of global warming and rising sea levels, storm surge disasters occur frequently, often forming complex chains of events that lead to severe crises.However, systematic research on the storm surge disaster chains is scarce. To characterize these chains, this research proposes a storm surge disaster chain analysis system based on complex networks and bayesian networks. The system consists of three modules: evaluation, prediction and measurement. The evaluation module uses a complex network model to quantitatively analyze the vulnerability, key nodes, and critical transmission paths of the disaster chain complex network. The prediction module establishes a bayesian network-based model to forecast the complex network evolution process, forecasting the occurrence probability and loss scenarios of the disaster events. The measurement module measures and calculates the chain effect based on the dependence relationship and loss degree of the disaster event loss scenario. The results elucidate that most key nodes are primary and secondary disasters such as seawater flooding, flooding, dam damage, rainstorm and house damage. Meanwhile, edges such as the sea wave-seawater flooding, house damage-human casualties have the critical impact in storm surge disaster chain complex network. Key evolutionary paths such as strong winds-human casualties, over-warning tide level-social influence need to be focused on. Disaster reduction strategies such as maintaining dams, reinforcing houses and removing disaster -bearing body can effectively break the chain and mitigate the disasters. This research has reference value for scientific understanding of storm surge disaster chain, and can serve as scientific basis for comprehensive disaster reduction, disaster preparedness and disaster relief.

    Keywords: storm surge, Disaster chain, Complex Network, Chain Effect, Chain-breaking and disaster mitigation

    Received: 13 Oct 2024; Accepted: 14 Nov 2024.

    Copyright: © 2024 Guo, Huang, Zhang and Shao. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence: Qinglong Shao, Qilu Aerospace Information Research Institute, Jinan, China

    Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.