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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Mar. Sci.
Sec. Ocean Solutions
Volume 11 - 2024 | doi: 10.3389/fmars.2024.1499231
This article is part of the Research Topic Data-Driven Ocean Environmental Perception with its Applications View all 8 articles

Risk performance analysis model of escort operation in Arctic waters via an integrated FRAM and Bayesian network

Provisionally accepted
Zhuang Li Zhuang Li 1Xiaoming Zhu Xiaoming Zhu 2Shiguan Liao Shiguan Liao 3*Kaixian Gao Kaixian Gao 1Shenping Hu Shenping Hu 2
  • 1 Guangdong Ocean University, Zhanjiang, China
  • 2 Shanghai Maritime University, pudong, Shanghai, China
  • 3 Shenzhen Polytechnic, Shenzhen, Guangdong, China

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    Escort operation is an effective mean to ensure the safety of ship navigation in the Arctic ice area and expand the window period for ship navigation. At the same time, the operation mode between icebreaker and escorted ship may also causes collision accident. In order to scientifically reflect the complex coupling relationship in the escort operation system in Arctic waters and effectively manage the navigation risks. This study proposes to use the functional resonance analysis method (FRAM) to identify the risk factors of ship escort operation in Arctic waters, and uses the Bayesian network (BN) method to establish a risk assessment model for escort operation collision accident. The cloud model is used to process the uncertain data information. The proposed method is applied during the actual escort operation of a commercial ship on the Arctic Northeast Passage. According to the model simulation results, the risk performance of ship escort operation in Arctic waters is quantitatively analyzed, and the key risk causes are further analyzed. This study has positive significance for better understanding the risk evolution mechanism of ship escort operation in Arctic ice area and helping relevant management departments to take risk control measures.

    Keywords: risk performance1, functional resonance accident model2, Bayesian network3, cloud model4, escort operation5, Arctic waters6

    Received: 20 Sep 2024; Accepted: 26 Nov 2024.

    Copyright: © 2024 Li, Zhu, Liao, Gao and Hu. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence: Shiguan Liao, Shenzhen Polytechnic, Shenzhen, 518055, Guangdong, China

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