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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Mar. Sci.
Sec. Marine Ecosystem Ecology
Volume 11 - 2024 | doi: 10.3389/fmars.2024.1476223
This article is part of the Research Topic Understanding the Response of Ecosystems to Increasing Human Pressures and Climate Change – Management Options View all 18 articles

Spatio-temporal analysis of potential factors explaining fluctuations in population size of Spisula subtruncata in the Dutch North Sea

Provisionally accepted
Jimmy de Fouw Jimmy de Fouw 1*Peter van Horssen Peter van Horssen 2Johan Craeymeersch Johan Craeymeersch 3Mardik Leopold Mardik Leopold 4Jack Perdon Jack Perdon 3Karin Troost Karin Troost 5Ingrid Tulp Ingrid Tulp 5Jetze van Zwol Jetze van Zwol 3Catharina J. Philippart Catharina J. Philippart 6
  • 1 Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research (NIOZ), Texel, Netherlands
  • 2 Greenstat consultancy, Utrecht, Netherlands
  • 3 Wageningen Marine Research, Wageningen University, Yerseke, Yerseke, Netherlands
  • 4 Wageningen Marine Research, Wageningen University and Research, Den Helder, Netherlands
  • 5 Wageningen Marine Research IJmuiden, IJmuiden, Netherlands
  • 6 Department of Coastal Systems, Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research (NIOZ), Texel, Netherlands

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    Bivalves play a key role in coastal ecosystems by supporting food web, modifying habitats, and their economic value for fisheries. Many bivalve species are under pressure, showing large variations in population sizes and distributions, with climate change and human activities considered as important drivers. The Dutch North Sea hosts high densities of bivalve species, dominated by the cut trough shell Spisula subtruncata, with strong interannual variations and a patchy distribution. To explore the causes of this variation, data of an extensive long-term spatial benthic monitoring program (1995-2021) was analysed using a Bayesian spatio-temporal hurdle model. We considered indicators related to human activities, biological processes, climate change and habitat preference as explanatory variables for the observed long-term temporal and spatial variations. Results revealed that medium sediment grain size was key determinant of S. subtruncata occurrence and density. Increasing sea water temperatures during winter and the post-settlement phase positively affected annual population densities, while strong north-westerly winds led to lower densities. These climate change related factors had an overall positive effect on this species in the region. Human activities like shellfish dredging and sand nourishment had no measurable impact. However, shrimp and flatfish beam trawling overlapped with S. subtruncata occurrence and were negatively related to densities, suggesting higher beam trawling intensity in these areas may negatively impacts densities. Overall, the effects were stronger at medium to finer sediments where the highest densities occurred, indicating a strong habitat-dependent effect. Despite identifying multiple drivers, unexplained annual variation suggests other not included factors like predation pressure, also play a role. More detailed studies on the combined effects of climate change-driven environmental stressors and human activities are needed to fully understand the population dynamics. This knowledge is essential for developing more adequate fisheries and coastal management strategies to sustain biodiversity.

    Keywords: anthropogenic impacts, bayesian statistics, Climate Change, Dutch North Sea, Population Dynamics, Spisula subtruncata

    Received: 05 Aug 2024; Accepted: 28 Oct 2024.

    Copyright: © 2024 de Fouw, van Horssen, Craeymeersch, Leopold, Perdon, Troost, Tulp, van Zwol and Philippart. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence: Jimmy de Fouw, Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research (NIOZ), Texel, Netherlands

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