AUTHOR=Record Nicholas R. , Evanilla Johnathan , Kanwit Kohl , Burnell Craig , Cartisano Carmen , Lewis Bryant J. , MacLeod Jill , Tupper Benjamin , Miller David W. , Tracy Adrienne T. , White Carol , Moretti Matt , Hamilton Ben , Barner Cameron , Archer Stephen D. TITLE=Benefits and Challenges of a Stakeholder-Driven Shellfish Toxicity Forecast in Coastal Maine JOURNAL=Frontiers in Marine Science VOLUME=9 YEAR=2022 URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/marine-science/articles/10.3389/fmars.2022.923738 DOI=10.3389/fmars.2022.923738 ISSN=2296-7745 ABSTRACT=

Paralytic shellfish poison (PSP) is a human health concern for shellfish aquaculture and wild harvest. This paper discusses lessons learned from a forecasting program for PSP in coastal Maine, USA, designed based on stakeholder input, and run in an operational mode for the 2021 season. The forecast uses a deep learning algorithm to make site-specific, probabilistic forecasts at a weekly forecast range for toxin levels measured in shellfish tissue. Forecasts had high accuracy in the 2021 season, correctly predicting closure events and locations despite a highly unusual season. Stakeholders reported a positive view of the forecast system, and stakeholder input continues to be of key importance as further modifications are made to the system. There are benefits and challenges to the stakeholder-based design of the system.