AUTHOR=Dayan Hugo , Le Cozannet Goneri , Speich Sabrina , Thiéblemont Rémi TITLE=High-End Scenarios of Sea-Level Rise for Coastal Risk-Averse Stakeholders JOURNAL=Frontiers in Marine Science VOLUME=8 YEAR=2021 URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/marine-science/articles/10.3389/fmars.2021.569992 DOI=10.3389/fmars.2021.569992 ISSN=2296-7745 ABSTRACT=
Sea-level rise (SLR) will be one of the major climate change-induced risks of the 21st century for coastal areas. The large uncertainties of ice sheet melting processes bring in a range of unlikely – but not impossible – high-end sea-level scenarios (HESs). Here, we provide global to regional HESs exploring the tails of the distribution estimates of the different components of sea level. We base our scenarios on high-end physical-based model projections for glaciers, ocean sterodynamic effects, glacial isostatic adjustment and contributions from land-water, and we rely on a recent expert elicitation assessment for Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheets. We consider two future emissions scenarios and three time horizons that are critical for risk-averse stakeholders (2050, 2100, and 2200). We present our results from global to regional scales and highlight HESs spatial divergence and their departure from global HESs through twelve coastal city and island examples. For HESs-A, the global mean-sea level (GMSL) is projected to reach 1.06(1.91) in the