AUTHOR=Muhling Barbara A. , Brodie Stephanie , Smith James A. , Tommasi Desiree , Gaitan Carlos F. , Hazen Elliott L. , Jacox Michael G. , Auth Toby D. , Brodeur Richard D. TITLE=Predictability of Species Distributions Deteriorates Under Novel Environmental Conditions in the California Current System JOURNAL=Frontiers in Marine Science VOLUME=7 YEAR=2020 URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/marine-science/articles/10.3389/fmars.2020.00589 DOI=10.3389/fmars.2020.00589 ISSN=2296-7745 ABSTRACT=
Spatial distributions of marine fauna are determined by complex interactions between environmental conditions and animal behaviors. As climate change leads to warmer, more acidic, and less oxygenated oceans, species are shifting away from their historical distribution ranges, and these trends are expected to continue into the future. Correlative Species Distribution Models (SDMs) can be used to project future habitat extent for marine species, with many different statistical methods available. However, it is vital to assess how different statistical methods behave under novel environmental conditions before using these models for management advice, and to consider whether future projections based on these techniques are biologically reasonable. In this study, we built SDMs for adults and larvae of two ecologically important pelagic fishes in the California Current System (CCS): Pacific sardine (