AUTHOR=Capotondi Antonietta , Jacox Michael , Bowler Chris , Kavanaugh Maria , Lehodey Patrick , Barrie Daniel , Brodie Stephanie , Chaffron Samuel , Cheng Wei , Dias Daniela F. , Eveillard Damien , Guidi Lionel , Iudicone Daniele , Lovenduski Nicole S. , Nye Janet A. , Ortiz Ivonne , Pirhalla Douglas , Pozo Buil Mercedes , Saba Vincent , Sheridan Scott , Siedlecki Samantha , Subramanian Aneesh , de Vargas Colomban , Di Lorenzo Emanuele , Doney Scott C. , Hermann Albert J. , Joyce Terrence , Merrifield Mark , Miller Arthur J. , Not Fabrice , Pesant Stephane TITLE=Observational Needs Supporting Marine Ecosystems Modeling and Forecasting: From the Global Ocean to Regional and Coastal Systems JOURNAL=Frontiers in Marine Science VOLUME=6 YEAR=2019 URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/marine-science/articles/10.3389/fmars.2019.00623 DOI=10.3389/fmars.2019.00623 ISSN=2296-7745 ABSTRACT=

Many coastal areas host rich marine ecosystems and are also centers of economic activities, including fishing, shipping and recreation. Due to the socioeconomic and ecological importance of these areas, predicting relevant indicators of the ecosystem state on sub-seasonal to interannual timescales is gaining increasing attention. Depending on the application, forecasts may be sought for variables and indicators spanning physics (e.g., sea level, temperature, currents), chemistry (e.g., nutrients, oxygen, pH), and biology (from viruses to top predators). Many components of the marine ecosystem are known to be influenced by leading modes of climate variability, which provide a physical basis for predictability. However, prediction capabilities remain limited by the lack of a clear understanding of the physical and biological processes involved, as well as by insufficient observations for forecast initialization and verification. The situation is further complicated by the influence of climate change on ocean conditions along coastal areas, including sea level rise, increased stratification, and shoaling of oxygen minimum zones. Observations are thus vital to all aspects of marine forecasting: statistical and/or dynamical model development, forecast initialization, and forecast validation, each of which has different observational requirements, which may be also specific to the study region. Here, we use examples from United States (U.S.) coastal applications to identify and describe the key requirements for an observational network that is needed to facilitate improved process understanding, as well as for sustaining operational ecosystem forecasting. We also describe new holistic observational approaches, e.g., approaches based on acoustics, inspired by Tara Oceans or by landscape ecology, which have the potential to support and expand ecosystem modeling and forecasting activities by bridging global and local observations.