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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Immunol.
Sec. Cancer Immunity and Immunotherapy
Volume 15 - 2024 |
doi: 10.3389/fimmu.2024.1447879
This article is part of the Research Topic Combination Immunotherapy and Immune Response Assessment of Brain Tumours View all 6 articles
Variable screening and model construction for prognosis of elderly patients with lower-grade gliomas based on LASSO-Cox regression: a population-based cohort study
Provisionally accepted- West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan Province, China
Background: This study aimed to identify prognostic factors for survival and develop a prognostic nomogram to predict the survival probability of elderly patients with lower-grade gliomas (LGGs). Methods: Elderly patients with histologically confirmed LGG were recruited from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. These individuals were randomly allocated to the training and validation cohorts at a 2:1 ratio. First, Kaplan‒Meier survival analysis and subgroup analysis were performed. Second, variable screening of all 13 variables and a comparison of predictive models based on full Cox regression and LASSO-Cox regression analyses were performed, and the key variables in the optimal model were selected to construct prognostic nomograms for OS and CSS. Finally, a risk stratification system and a web-based dynamic nomogram were constructed. Results: A total of 2307 elderly patients included 1220 males and 1087 females, with a median age of 72 years and a mean age of 73.30±6.22 years. Among them, 520 patients (22.5%) had Grade 2 gliomas, and 1787 (77.5%) had Grade 3 gliomas. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed four independent prognostic factors (age, WHO grade, surgery, and chemotherapy) that were used to construct the full Cox model. In addition, LASSO-Cox regression analysis revealed five prognostic factors (age, WHO grade, surgery, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy), and a LASSO model was constructed. A comparison of the two models revealed that the LASSO model with five variables had better predictive performance than the full Cox model with four variables. Ultimately, five key variables based on LASSO-Cox regression were utilized to develop prognostic nomograms for predicting the 1-, 2-, and 5-year OS and CSS rates. The nomograms exhibited relatively good predictive ability and clinical utility. Moreover, the risk stratification system based on the nomograms effectively divided patients into low-risk and high-risk subgroups. Conclusion: Variable screening based on LASSO-Cox regression was used to determine the optimal prediction model in this study. Prognostic nomograms could serve as practical tools for predicting survival probabilities, categorizing these patients into different mortality risk subgroups, and developing personalized decision-making strategies for elderly patients with LGGs. Moreover, the web-based dynamic nomogram could facilitate its use in the clinic.
Keywords: Cancer-specific survival, Elderly, Lower-grade glioma, nomogram, overall survival, SEER
Received: 12 Jun 2024; Accepted: 26 Aug 2024.
Copyright: © 2024 Niu, Chang, Zhang, Liu, Yang and Mao. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence:
Qing Mao, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan Province, China
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