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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Immunol.
Sec. Autoimmune and Autoinflammatory Disorders: Autoinflammatory Disorders
Volume 15 - 2024 | doi: 10.3389/fimmu.2024.1426127

Early Detection of Psoriatic Arthritis in Patients with Psoriasis: Construction of a Multifactorial Prediction Model

Provisionally accepted
Chunxiao Wang Chunxiao Wang Sihan Wang Sihan Wang Liu Liu Liu Liu Jiao Wang Jiao Wang Xiaoce Cai Xiaoce Cai Miao Zhang Miao Zhang Xiaoying Sun Xiaoying Sun Xin Li Xin Li *
  • Yueyang Hospital of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Shanghai, China

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    Psoriatic arthritis (PsA) affects approximately one in five individuals with psoriasis. Early identification of patients with psoriasis at risk of developing PsA is crucial to prevent poor prognosis. We established a derivation cohort comprising 1,661 patients with psoriasis from 49 hospitals. Clinical and demographic variables ascertained at hospital admission were screened using the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator and logistic regression to construct a prediction model and a new web-based calculator. Ultimately, six significant independent predictors were identified: history of unexplained swollen joints (odds ratio [OR]: 5.814, 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 3.304–10.117; p < 0.001), history of arthritis (OR: 3.543, 95% CI: 1.982–6.246; p < 0.001), history of unexplained swollen and painful fingers or toes (OR: 2.707, 95% CI: 1.463–4.915; p = 0.001), nail involvement (OR: 1.907, 95% CI: 1.235–2.912; p = 0.003), hyperlipidemia (OR: 4.265, 95% CI: 0.921–15.493; p = 0.042), and prolonged topical use of glucocorticosteroids (OR: 1.581, 95% CI: 1.052–2.384, p = 0.028). The web-based calculator derived from this model can assist clinicians in promptly determining the probability of developing PsA in patients with psoriasis, thereby facilitating improved clinical decision-making.

    Keywords: psoriatic arthritis, Prediction model, web-based calculator, Psoriasis, Decision curve analysis Psoriatic arthritis, Decision curve analysis

    Received: 30 Apr 2024; Accepted: 18 Nov 2024.

    Copyright: © 2024 Wang, Wang, Liu, Wang, Cai, Zhang, Sun and Li. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence: Xin Li, Yueyang Hospital of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Shanghai, China

    Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.