This study aimed to examine the effectiveness of the best response rate (BRR) as a surrogate for overall survival (OS), using the modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (mRECIST), in patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy (HAIC) with fluorouracil, leucovorin, and oxaliplatin (FOLFOX) combined with molecular targeting and immunotherapy.
This study enrolled 111 consecutive patients who had complete imaging data. The median age of patients was 58 years (IQR 50.5-65.0). Among the patients, those with Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage A, BCLC stage B, and BCLC stage C comprised 6.4%, 19.1%, and 73.6%, respectively. The optimal threshold of BRR can be determined using restricted cubic splines (RCS) and the rank sum statistics of maximum selection. Survival curves of patients in the high rating and low rating groups were plotted. We then used the change-in-estimate (CIE) method to filter out confounders and the inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) to balance confounders between the two groups to assess the robustness of the results.
The median frequency of the combination treatment regimens administered in the overall population was 3 times (IQR 2.0-3.0). The optimal BRR truncation value calculated was −0.2. Based on this value, 77 patients were categorized as the low rating group and 34 as the high rating group. The differences in the OS between the high and low rating groups were statistically significant (7 months [95%CI 6.0-14.0] vs. 30 months [95%CI 30.0-]; p< 0.001). Using the absolute 10% cut-off value, the CIE method was used to screen out the following confounding factors affecting prognosis: successful conversion surgery, baseline tumor size, BCLC stage, serum total bilirubin level, number of interventional treatments, alpha-fetoprotein level, presence of inferior vena cava tumor thrombus, and partial thrombin activation time. The survival curve was then plotted again using IPTW for confounding factors, and it was found that the low rating group continued to have better OS than the high rating group. Finally, the relationship between BRR and baseline factors was analyzed, and inferior vena cava tumor thrombus and baseline tumor size correlated significantly with BRR.
BRR can be used as a surrogate endpoint for OS in unresectable HCC patients undergoing FOLFOX-HAIC in combination with molecular targeting and immunotherapy. Thus, by calculating the BRR, the prognosis of HCC patients after combination therapy can be predicted. Inferior vena cava tumor thrombus and baseline tumor size were closely associated with the BRR.