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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. For. Glob. Change
Sec. Forest Management
Volume 8 - 2025 |
doi: 10.3389/ffgc.2025.1465416
Prediction of the change in suitable growth area of Sabina Tibetica on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau using MaxEnt model
Provisionally accepted- 1 Nanjing Gago Group, Nanjing, China
- 2 Tibet Agriculture and Animal Husbandry College, Linzhi, China
Climate warming will affect the spatial distribution of Tibetan juniper (Sabina Tibetica), an endemic tree species growing at elevations between 2,800 to 4,600 meters above sea level on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. This study aimed to predict potential changes in the geographic distribution of Tibetan juniper under future climate warming scenarios. In this paper, we used the MaxEnt species distribution model to predict the potential change in geographic distribution of Tibetan juniper under two future scenarios of climate warming. The results showed that the MaxEnt model can accurately depict the basic distribution characteristics of Tibetan juniper using 10 environmental factors. By the year 2050, the habitat area suitable for the growth of Tibetan juniper will decrease from the current 4.69 × 10 4 km 2 to 3.83 × 10 4 km 2 under climate warming scenario RCP4.5,and to 2.78 × 10 4 km 2 under scenario RCP8.0. By the year 2070, the total suitable distribution area under scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.0 will be 3.83 × 10 4 km 2 and 3.86 × 10 4 km 2 , respectively. This study projects significant habitat reduction for Sabina tibetica on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau by 2070 due to climate warming. These findings underscore the urgency of developing targeted conservation strategies and provide crucial insights for biodiversity preservation and ecosystem management in high-altitude regions.
Keywords: Sabina tibetica, Climate Change, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Maxent, Distribution area
Received: 16 Jul 2024; Accepted: 28 Jan 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Li, Yang, Wang and Pan. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence:
Xiaoxiong Li, Nanjing Gago Group, Nanjing, China
Dongsheng Yang, Tibet Agriculture and Animal Husbandry College, Linzhi, China
Gang Pan, Tibet Agriculture and Animal Husbandry College, Linzhi, China
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