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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. For. Glob. Change
Sec. Forests and the Atmosphere
Volume 7 - 2024 | doi: 10.3389/ffgc.2024.1501987

Changes in forest ecosystem stability under climate change in a temperate landscape

Provisionally accepted
Pavithra Rangani WIJENAYAKE Pavithra Rangani WIJENAYAKE 1*Takuto Shitara Takuto Shitara 2Akiko Hirata Akiko Hirata 2Tetsuya Matsui Tetsuya Matsui 2,3Yasuhiro Kubota Yasuhiro Kubota 4Takashi Masaki Takashi Masaki 2
  • 1 National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
  • 2 Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan
  • 3 School of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
  • 4 Lab. Biodiversity & Conservation Biogeography, Faculty of Science University of the Ryukyus, Okinawa, Japan

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    Climate change poses significant threats to forests globally. Understanding the relationship between environmental variables and species distribution is crucial for evaluating the vulnerability of tree species assemblies to anticipated climate change. Here, we address whether projected future changes in climate suitability are related to the structural stability of the old-growth forest community in Japan. We hypothesize that even with the expected changes in climate, the structural stability of the species assembly will remain unchanged until the end of this century. We modeled the influence of climate change on the spatial distribution of major tree species in a temperate deciduous forest reserve using local and regional presence data. We used the Maxent model and QGIS software to project potential habitat changes. Focusing on the period 2081-2100, we used the MRI-ESM2-O general circulation model under baseline (SSP5-8.5) and mitigation (SSP1-2.6) future climate scenarios. This revealed that winter temperature is the most crucial factor affecting the distribution of tree species in the temperate landscape. Canopy tree species such as Acer pictum and Castanea crenata are projected to remain stable under SSP5-8.5 in 2100. Our results also suggest that the distribution of Quercus serrata, the dominant species in the forest studied, will expand, particularly under extreme climate conditions in 2100. However, there may be potential reductions in the abundance of subcanopy species, indicating a change in the structure of the forest stand. In this sense, the stability of forest ecosystems and local species diversity may be vulnerable under future climate change scenarios. Exploring the future species distribution and stand structure can improve understanding of habitat changes in temperate landscapes and requires more focused research efforts.

    Keywords: Climate Change, Ogawa Forest Reserve, Tree species distribution, Canopy, and subcanopy species

    Received: 26 Sep 2024; Accepted: 24 Dec 2024.

    Copyright: © 2024 WIJENAYAKE, Shitara, Hirata, Matsui, Kubota and Masaki. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence: Pavithra Rangani WIJENAYAKE, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, 305-8506, Ibaraki, Japan

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