AUTHOR=Rozenberg Philippe , Pâques Luc , Huard Frédéric , Roques Alain TITLE=Direct and Indirect Analysis of the Elevational Shift of Larch Budmoth Outbreaks Along an Elevation Gradient JOURNAL=Frontiers in Forests and Global Change VOLUME=3 YEAR=2020 URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/forests-and-global-change/articles/10.3389/ffgc.2020.00086 DOI=10.3389/ffgc.2020.00086 ISSN=2624-893X ABSTRACT=

Larch budmoth (LBM) periodically defoliates alpine stands of European larch during vast outbreaks occurring generally at 8–10 year intervals. LBM outbreaks recently declined and the ongoing global warming has been pointed out as a possible cause of this decline. In this article, we reconstructed the recent history of LBM outbreaks at different elevations along a larch elevational gradient in the French Alps using direct and indirect observations based on tree-ring width and density analysis, and compared it with local climatic data. We found that LBM outbreaks time-series were better reconstructed with latewood density than with ring width. We also found that there was a recent but limited elevational shift of LBM outbreaks from medium toward higher elevations. We suggest that this elevational shift is a consequence of the variable effect of the global warming at the different elevations. Winter warming is expected to affect differently the timing of LBM egg hatch as well as that of larch bud flush, larvae being at present susceptible to emerge whereas no needles are available as food at the former optimal elevation. A better synchronization between larch and LBM may exist at higher elevations.