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BRIEF RESEARCH REPORT article

Front. Epidemiol.
Sec. Research Methods and Advances in Epidemiology
Volume 4 - 2024 | doi: 10.3389/fepid.2024.1429034

Approximation of the infection-age-structured SIR model by the conventional SIR model of infectious disease epidemiology

Provisionally accepted
Ralph Brinks Ralph Brinks 1*Annika Hoyer Annika Hoyer 2
  • 1 Department for Medical Biometry and Epidemiology, Faculty of Health, University Witten / Herdecke, Witten, Germany
  • 2 Biostatistics and Medical Biometry, Medical School OWL, Bielefeld University, Bielefeld, Germany, Bielefeld, North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    During the SARS-CoV-2-pandemic the effective reproduction number (R-eff) has frequently been used to describe the course of the pandemic. Analytical properties of R-eff are rarely studied. We analytically examine how and under which conditions the conventional SIR model (without infection-age) serves as an approximation to the infection-age-structured SIR model. Special emphasis is given on the role of R-eff, which is an implicit parameter in the infectionage-structured SIR model and an explicit parameter in the approximation. The analytical findings are illustrated by a simulation study about an hypothetical intervention during a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak and by historical data from an influenza outbreak in Prussian army camps in the region of Arnsberg (Germany) 1918/19.

    Keywords: Effective reproduction number, net reproduction number, influenza, SARS-CoV-2, Lexis diagram, Spanish flu

    Received: 07 May 2024; Accepted: 02 Dec 2024.

    Copyright: © 2024 Brinks and Hoyer. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence: Ralph Brinks, Department for Medical Biometry and Epidemiology, Faculty of Health, University Witten / Herdecke, Witten, Germany

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