Machine Learning Provides Reconnaissance-Type Estimates of Carbon Dioxide Storage Resources in Oil and Gas Reservoirs

Emil Attanasi¹Philip Freeman¹Timothy Coburn^2*

• ¹US Geological Survey, Reston, VA 20192, United States
• ²Colorado State University, Fort Collins, United States

Oil and gas reservoirs represent suitable containers to sequester carbon dioxide (CO2) in a supercritical state because they are accessible, reservoir properties are known, and they previously contained stored buoyant fluids. However, planners must quantify the relative magnitude of the CO2 storage resource in these reservoirs to formulate a comprehensive strategy for CO2 mitigation. Even reconnaissance-type estimates of CO2 storage resources of known oil and gas reservoirs may require complicated calculations involving (1) estimates of recoverable oil and gas, (2) reservoir properties (depth, temperature, pressure, etc.), and (3) the physical qualities of the retained fluids. We demonstrate the application of machine learning (ML) algorithms to bypass these computations to yield more rapid estimates of CO2 storage resources in reservoirs capable of hosting CO2 in a supercritical state. ML algorithms are computationally efficient because they do not impose the strong assumptions on the data-generating process that standard statistical or engineering procedures require. Further, ML algorithms can capture highly complex, particularly nonlinear, relationships among predictor variables. We demonstrate the application of four different ML algorithms using data from onshore and offshore oil and gas reservoirs in Europe, and show they perform well when predictions are compared to engineering estimates. The proposed methods and models provide an effective and novel way to more rapidly and directly determine the subsurface CO2 storage capacity of oil and gas reservoirs around the world, information that operators, researchers, and policy makers alike require to meet energy transition and decarbonization goals.