Health effects economic loss of PM 2.5 pollution from oil consumption by mobile source in China

Yibin Lin ¹ Yanling Xi ² Jiabin Chen ^3* Yanfang Cui ¹ Zengchuan Wang ¹ Chenxu Ren ¹

• ¹ China University of Geosciences, Beijing, Beijing Municipality, China
• ² Jiangsu Academy of Social Sciences, Nan jing, China
• ³ Chinese Academy of Natural Resources Economics, Beijing, China

Oil plays an important role in the energy consumption structure. Oil consumption can release an amount of PM2.5. The transport sector accounts for the largest share in oil consumption and transportation emissions are measured by moving sources. The mobile source is an important source of PM2.5 emissions. As previous studies have overlooked the health impacts and economic losses associated with PM2.5 pollution from oil consumption by mobile sources, this paper employs the annual average concentration of PM2.5 in China's provinces over key years from 2020 to 2060. It then assesses the health effects and economic losses resulting from PM2.5 pollution in China's provincial oil consumption during these same key years, utilizing an integrated exposure-response relationship model and the revised human capital method. The results showed that the health effects of PM2.5 pollution on lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), ischemic heart disease (IHD), and stroke varied significantly by province: lung cancer deaths in 2020 were highest in Shandong Province (1,317 cases), followed by Henan Province (1,206 cases), and lowest in Tibet (only 7 cases in 2060); premature deaths from COPD were particularly prominent in Shandong Province (1,615 cases in 2020) and Guangdong Province (top in 2035); and premature deaths from stroke were particularly prominent in Shandong Province (1,615 cases in 2020), while Guangdong Province became the highest after 2035; premature deaths due to stroke are most severe in Shandong Province (5,284 cases in 2020), Henan Province and Jiangsu Province. As annual average PM2.5 concentrations decline, the number of premature deaths in China decreases, but the economic losses due to premature deaths are greatest in the middle-aged and older age groups (50-74 yrs). in 2020, lung cancer and COPD account for $151.988 billion in the 65-69 yrs age group, and stroke has the highest economic losses ($31.81 billion); by 2050, IHD tops the list of economic losses ($24.01 billion), while COPD consistently had the lowest economic losses. The study provides a quantitative basis for optimizing the energy structure and formulating regional differentiated emission reduction policies.