Unlocking Urban Transportation Carbon Reduction Potential: A Dynamic Evaluation of Public Transit Adoption in Response to Carbon-Centric Policies

Ran Peng^1,2,3Keyuan Ding^2,3*Xueliang Liu^2,3Keyu Yao^2,3Xu Zhou^2,3Wei Zhang^2,3*

• ¹School of Transportation and Logistics Engineering, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, Hubei Province, China
• ²School of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Wuhan Institute of Technology, Wuhan, China
• ³Hubei Provincial Engineering Research Center for Green Civil Engineering Materials and Structures, Wuhan, China

The transition to carbon-centric policies demands innovative approaches to unlock the carbon reduction potential of urban transportation. This study introduces the concept of "urban transportation carbon reduction potential," defined as the proportion of travelers who could shift from high-carbon to low-carbon modes under optimized public transit conditions. A dynamic evaluation method is developed, incorporating the impacts of connection, detour, and transfer barriers on residents’ willingness to adopt public transit. Applied to cross-river transportation in Wuhan, China, this method utilized 10,327 OD survey data points collected from 2023 to 2024. By constructing multiple scenarios and fitting relationship curves, we identified key thresholds that trigger rapid increases in carbon reduction potential. The results reveal three distinct zones of carbon reduction potential—stable, unlocking, and re-stable—with the unlocking zone demonstrating significant emissions reductions through targeted public transit improvements. This study pioneers an urban transportation optimization model that addresses natural environmental constraints, offering a quantitative tool for SDG11’s sustainable transportation goals and investment guidance for Yangtze River Economic Belt cities. It provides actionable insights for optimizing public transit, promoting low-carbon travel, and advancing sustainable urban mobility.