Accelerating Land Use Carbon Emissions in Shrinking Counties: A Systematic Analysis of Land Use Dynamics in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, 2000-2020

Zhang Jianwen ¹ Li Wang ² Fu Meichen ^1* Li Sijia ¹ Wen Hongyan ³

• ¹ China University of Geosciences, Beijing, China
• ² Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing, Beijing, China
• ³ Wu 'an Natural resources and planning Bureau, Shijiazhuang, China

A systematic investigation into land use carbon emissions (LUCE) in shrinking cities holds tremendous significance for the sustainable development of urban areas. Urban shrinkage, characterized by population loss and economic decline, poses unique challenges to achieving carbon neutrality goals. While existing studies predominantly focus on energy-related carbon emissions in shrinking cities, the role of land use dynamics remains underexplored. This study addresses this gap by examining LUCE at the county level and selecting the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region. By integrating population indices, land use data (2000-2020), energy statistics, and nightlight imagery, we classified counties into non-shrinking, continuous, temporary, and potential shrinkage types. Direct and indirect carbon emissions were estimated using emission coefficients and energy consumption models. Key findings include: (1) Non-shrinking counties, concentrated in urban cores, exhibit higher LUCE but slower growth rates, whereas shrinking peripheral counties show lower emissions but faster LUCE growth. (2) Continuous shrinkage counties experience the highest LUCE growth due to inefficient built-up area expansion, despite having significant carbon sinks. (3) Severe shrinkage counties demonstrate the fastest total carbon emissions (TCE) growth, with per capita emissions (PCE) positively correlated to shrinkage intensity. These results highlight that urban shrinkage paradoxically accelerates LUCE, necessitating differentiated policies for carbon reduction.