China's Readiness for Transitioning to a Low-Carbon Economy: Mitigant and Catalyst Factors for a Geopolitical Conflict

Yan Chen ¹ Jiayi Lyu ¹ Jaime Ortiz ^2* Wenbin Song ¹

• ¹ Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing, China
• ² The University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, Edinburg, United States

The transition from a carbon-intensive economy to a carbon-neutral one has emerged as a critical objective for policymakers worldwide to combat global warming. This study examines the intricate relationship between Low-Carbon Economic Development (LCED) and Geopolitical Risk (GPR) in China, revealing both challenges and opportunities. The findings highlight that rising GPR, characterized by market instability, resource allocation conflicts, and trade disputes, poses significant barriers to LCED. However, these geopolitical tensions also serve as a catalyst for accelerating renewable energy development, reducing dependence on conventional energy sources, and fostering low-carbon technologies. Conversely, LCED can mitigate geopolitical conflicts by decreasing reliance on energy imports, fostering international cooperation, and driving scientific innovation. Drawing on these insights, the study provides actionable policy recommendations to support the global transition toward a low-carbon economy. By addressing both mitigating and catalytic factors, the study underscores how LCED can serve as a pivotal tool for resolving geopolitical tensions and uniting the international community to tackle climate change.