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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Environ. Sci.
Sec. Environmental Informatics and Remote Sensing
Volume 13 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1523892

Dynamic Simulation of Landscape Ecological Risk in Gansu's Farming-Pastoral Ecotone Based on Topographic Gradients

Provisionally accepted
Le Yang Le Yang 1Jixuan Yan Jixuan Yan 1*Guang Li Guang Li 2Weiwei Ma Weiwei Ma 2Tao Li Tao Li 3Pengcheng Gao Pengcheng Gao 1Qiang Li Qiang Li 1Xiangdong Yao Xiangdong Yao 1Jie Li Jie Li 1Wenning Wang Wenning Wang 1
  • 1 College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou, Gansu Province, China
  • 2 College of Forestry, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou, Gansu Province, China
  • 3 Gansu coal geology bureau comprehensive survey, Tianshui 741000, China, tianshui, China

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    The farming-pastoral ecotone in Gansu Province, a crucial green barrier in northwestern China, faces a conflict between economic development and environmental fragility. Scientifically assessing the landscape ecological risks in this region is essential for developing an early warning system for ecological security and ensuring the sustainable management of regional ecosystems. This study systematically analyzes the dynamic evolution patterns and clustering characteristics of landscape ecological risk along the topographic gradient in the area, using Land-Use and Land-Cover Change (LUCC) data from five periods (each period representing ten years) between 1980 and 2020, as well as Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data. Methods such as CA-Markov and the Topographic Position Index (TPI) were employed to assess these risks. Additionally, the study simulates the spatial distribution patterns of ecological risks in future years. The results reveal that from 1980 to 2020, the area of built-up land in the farming-pastoral ecotone of Gansu Province increased by approximately 82%, with roughly 21% of the expansion occurring at the expense of grasslands and 53% from arable land. Ecological risk in the study area exhibits a spatial distribution pattern characterized by lower risk in the southwest and higher risk in the northeast. Overall, ecological risk initially increased and then decreased. The area of high-risk zones has steadily decreased by approximately 50% since 2010, primarily in regions with low topographic gradients and high human activity. In other areas, high-risk levels are directly proportional to the topographic gradient, showing a high degree of spatial clustering.Consequently, land-use planning should be tailored to local conditions, and a long-term monitoring mechanism should be established. This study provides novel insights into the spatiotemporal changes in landscape ecological risk in ecologically vulnerable areas, focusing on topographic gradients.

    Keywords: Topographic gradient, Farming-pastoral ecotone of Gansu province, Landscape ecological risk, Topographic Position Index, Autocorrelation analysis

    Received: 06 Nov 2024; Accepted: 02 Jan 2025.

    Copyright: © 2025 Yang, Yan, Li, Ma, Li, Gao, Li, Yao, Li and Wang. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence: Jixuan Yan, College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou, Gansu Province, China

    Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.