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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Environ. Sci.
Sec. Environmental Informatics and Remote Sensing
Volume 12 - 2024 | doi: 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1459669

The spatiotemporal evolution and prediction of vegetation NPP in the Huangshui River Basin of Qilian Mountains

Provisionally accepted
Sujing Ding Sujing Ding 1Qiang Sun Qiang Sun 2Yan Guo Yan Guo 3*Xiao Wei Xiao Wei 4
  • 1 Other, Baiyin, China
  • 2 Other, Tangshan, China
  • 3 Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou, China
  • 4 Other, Lanzhou, China

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    The Qilian Mountains and Huangshui River Basin (HRB) represent significant ecological functional areas and carbon reservoirs within China. The estimation and prediction of vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) in this area is beneficial for the management of China's terrestrial ecosystems. Nevertheless, the existing estimation methods for vegetation NPP at the local scale are characterised by considerable uncertainty and error, and have not accounted for the influence of multifactor interactions. Accordingly, this study initially sought to quantify the vegetation NPP data within the HRB from 2000 to 2019 through the implementation of an improved Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) model. Subsequently, it endeavoured to elucidate the spatiotemporal evolution patterns and influencing factors of vegetation NPP within the HRB over the years. Subsequently, the ConvGRU spatiotemporal prediction model was employed to investigate the prospective trajectory of vegetation NPP in the HRB. The findings revealed a notable upward trajectory in the annual variation of vegetation NPP in the HRB between 2000 and 2019. The majority of regions have demonstrated a notable increase in vegetation NPP, although a few areashave exhibited a decline. Furthermore, the correlation between vegetation NPP and PRE, TEMP, SR, and NDVI exhibits regional disparities. Furthermore, the spatial variation characteristics of vegetation NPP in the HRB in the future also demonstrate an overall increasing trend. Additionally, the vegetation NPP in the HRB exhibits significant spatial distribution characteristics, with evident trends of hot spot contraction or cold spot expansion. This study provides pivotal methods and theoretical support for the assessment of carbon sequestration status in the HRB of the Qilian Mountains and analogous regions.

    Keywords: Vegetation net primary productivity, spatiotemporal evolution patterns, Future prediction, Huangshui River Basin in Qilian Mountains, ConvGRU

    Received: 04 Jul 2024; Accepted: 30 Dec 2024.

    Copyright: © 2024 Ding, Sun, Guo and Wei. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence: Yan Guo, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou, China

    Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.