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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Environ. Sci.
Sec. Environmental Informatics and Remote Sensing
Volume 12 - 2024 | doi: 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1449576

Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Prediction of Carbon Storage at the Source of the Fen and Sanggan Rivers based on a PLUS-InVEST Model

Provisionally accepted
  • Shanxi Agricultural University, Jinzhong, China

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    Investigating the evolution of land use and its impact on carbon storage is of significant importance for mitigating regional climate change and promoting green low-carbon development. Ningwu County is located in the source region of the Fenhe and Sanggan River, and its ecological status significantly influences the carbon storage (CS) of the watershed ecosystem. In this study, the PLUS-InVEST model was employed to analyze the land use evolution from 1990 to 2020 in Ningwu County, Shanxi Province, as well as their impacts on CS. Additionally, the study simulated and predicted land use changes in Ningwu County by 2040 under four scenarios: natural development (NDS), ecological protection (EPS), cultivated land protection (CLPS), and urban development (UDS), while estimating the corresponding changes in ecosystem CS. Furthermore, the study utilized optimal parameters-based geographical detector to explore the mechanisms underlying the spatial differentiation of CS. The results indicated that the areas of forest land and construction land in the study area consistently increased from 1990 to 2020, whereas the area of cultivated land continuously declined, with grassland, water bodies, and unused land exhibiting a fluctuating increasing trend. The spatial distribution of CS was highest in the northwest, second highest in the southeast, and lowest in the middle region. Over these three decades, CS had shown a continuous increase. It is projected that by 2040, the areas of forest and grassland will experience the most significant increase under the EPS; cultivated land only increase under the CLPS; while construction land display the greatest increase under the UDS. Compared to 2020, these four scenarios for 2040 indicate an increase in regional CS, with the EPS showing the largest increment. The primary factors influencing the spatial differentiation of CS in Ningwu County are human activities, followed by topography and climate change; the interactions among these factors exhibit a reinforcing relationship, with the interaction between the distance from construction land and slope having the most substantial impact on the spatial differentiation of CS.

    Keywords: PLUS model1, InVEST model2, Carbon storage3, land use4, Fen River5, Sanggan River6

    Received: 17 Jun 2024; Accepted: 30 Oct 2024.

    Copyright: © 2024 Fu, Zhen, Zhou, Wang and Qiao. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence: Zhilei Zhen, Shanxi Agricultural University, Jinzhong, China

    Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.