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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Environ. Sci.
Sec. Land Use Dynamics
Volume 12 - 2024 | doi: 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1422987

Driving mechanisms and multi-scenario simulation of land use change based on National Land Survey Data: a case in Jianghan Plain, China

Provisionally accepted
Heng Zhou Heng Zhou 1,2*Mingdong Tang Mingdong Tang 1*Jun Huang Jun Huang 3Xiaoxia Mei Xiaoxia Mei 1Haijuan Zhao Haijuan Zhao 4,5
  • 1 School of Urban Construction, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hebei Province, China
  • 2 Hubei Engineering Research Center of Urban Renewal, Wuhan, Hebei Province, China
  • 3 College of Digital Construction and Blasting Engineering, Jianghan University, Wuhan, Hebei Province, China
  • 4 School of Urban Design, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hebei Province, China
  • 5 Wuhan Design Consultation Group Co., Ltd, Wuhan, Hebei Province, China

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    The Jianghan Plain is simultaneously responsible for ecological protection, food security and urbanization, and land use conflicts are prominent. Revealing the driving mechanism of land use/cover change (LUCC) and simulating the land use pattern can help to coordinate the land use conflicts in the future. Utilizing the National Land Survey Data (NLSD) of Jiangling County in Jianghan Plain (2011-2020) and the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model, this paper analyzed the characteristics of land use evolution, applied the random forest classification (RFC) to analyze the driving mechanism, simulated the 2035 land use pattern under three scenarios of natural development, planning guidance and ecological protection through Markov and Cellular Automaton based on multiple random seeds (CARS) models, and proposed several countermeasures. The study found that: (1) From 2011 to 2020, town construction land increased, village construction land, agricultural land and ecological land decreased. (2) The factors driving LUCC were socio-economic factors, spatial factors, and natural factors in descending order. (3) In the three scenarios, the trend of construction land expansion, agricultural land and ecological land encroachment is inevitable by 2035. (4) It is imperative to actively advocate for large-scale mechanization and informatization of agricultural production, encourage the repurposing of idle and inefficiently used construction land, facilitate multi-purpose land utilization, and implement a policy of locally balancing occupation and compensation for cultivated and ecological land. (5) When employing the PLUS model to simulate LUCC, using continuous NLSD yielded more accurate results than remote sensing image interpretation data. This study offers a theoretical basis for the coordinated development of land use in Jianghan Plain, and presents a method to enhance the simulation accuracy of the PLUS model.

    Keywords: sustainable development, land use change, Driving mechanism, multi-scenario simulation, Land use policy, National Land Survey Data, Plus model, Jianghan Plain

    Received: 25 Apr 2024; Accepted: 09 Jul 2024.

    Copyright: © 2024 Zhou, Tang, Huang, Mei and Zhao. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence:
    Heng Zhou, School of Urban Construction, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hebei Province, China
    Mingdong Tang, School of Urban Construction, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hebei Province, China

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