dong zhao ¹ guolong chen ² Lanbo Guo ^1* lijie yan ¹ tingting sun ¹

• ¹ Institute of Geography, Henan Academy of Sciences, Zhengzhou, China
• ² Department of Environmental Studies, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Science, Peking University, Beijing, Beijing Municipality, China

The unprecedented growth in population and swift industrial advancements exert considerable strains on the ecosystem, particularly within medium-sized and large urban landscapes. The critical investigation into the intricate links between current and prospective land utilization, as well as the ecosystem service value (ESV), holds considerable empirical relevance for the calibration of land usage frameworks, thereby contributing to the sustainable evolution of extensive urban zones. Utilizing GlobeLand 30 data, the present research probes into the pattern of land transformation and the spatial-temporal dispersal of ESV in Henan's Yellow River vicinity over a span from 2000 to 2020. For the enhancement of land usage alignment, a Markov-PLUS fusion model was devised to gauge three disparate ESV transition scenarios slated for 2030, namely natural development scenario (NDS), cropland protection scenario (CPS), and ecological protection scenario (EPS). The principal determinants of land transformation within the 2000-2020 period were recognized as elevation, populace concentration, and atmospheric temperature. Amid the rapid accretion of construction land engulfing substantial cropland and grassland areas, there was an ESV diminution to the tune of 1.432 billion RMB between 2000 and 2020. The ESV's high-value regions were discerned within relatively undisturbed ecosystem zones, with the lower-value sections identified in cropland and constructed areas, where human interventions exerted pronounced effects on the ecosystem. In accordance with the 2030 land usage simulations and analyses, in contrast to alternative scenarios, the EPS exhibited the least fluctuation in land type alterations in 2030, demonstrated the most pronounced escalation in cold spot concentration, and reached a peak agglomeration level. This underscores that the EPS not only offers a refinement in land utilization configuration but also mediates the equilibrium between economic and ecological considerations. The insights derived from this investigation afford innovative evaluative methods for spatial planning, ecological recompense, and sustainable land exploitation within large-and medium-scale urban domains.