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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Energy Res.
Sec. Smart Grids
Volume 13 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fenrg.2025.1547617
Quantification of Residential Flexibility Potential using Global Forecasting Models
Provisionally accepted- 1 University of Applied Sciences and Arts of Southern Switzerland, Manno, Switzerland
- 2 Hive Power, Manno, Ticino, Switzerland
This paper introduces a novel, simulation-based methodology to quantify and optimize the economic benefits of controlling flexible loads in a Distribution System Operator's (DSO) grid-without relying on historical consumption data. By training a non-parametric global forecasting model on simulated responses of electric water heaters (EHs) and heat pumps (HPs) to randomized control signals, we design an optimal control policy that not only captures the flexibility potential but also effectively mitigates rebound effects. Our results demonstrate that the forecaster's high accuracy permits bypassing the full simulation during optimization, thereby significantly reducing computational requirements while ensuring near-real-time economic performance evaluations. These findings underscore the method's potential for enhancing grid resilience and operational efficiency in modern energy systems.
Keywords: Control, Energy flexibility, Forecasting, flexibility estimation, Renewable Energies
Received: 19 Dec 2024; Accepted: 31 Mar 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Nespoli and Medici. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence:
Lorenzo Nespoli, University of Applied Sciences and Arts of Southern Switzerland, Manno, Switzerland
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