Skip to main content

ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Energy Res.
Sec. Smart Grids
Volume 12 - 2024 | doi: 10.3389/fenrg.2024.1450966
This article is part of the Research Topic Enhancing Resilience in Smart Grids: Cyber-Physical Systems Security, Simulations, and Adaptive Defense Strategies View all 6 articles

Prediction of Hydrogen Consumption Scale and Hydrogen Price Based on LEAP model and Two-factor Learning Curve

Provisionally accepted
Hongxia Li Hongxia Li 1Haiguo Yu Haiguo Yu 1Haiting Wang Haiting Wang 1Xiaokan Gou Xiaokan Gou 1Fei Liu Fei Liu 1Lixin Li Lixin Li 2Qian Wang Qian Wang 2Xin Zhang Xin Zhang 2Yuanyuan Li Yuanyuan Li 2Outing Zhang Outing Zhang 3*
  • 1 State Grid Qinghai Electric Power Company, Xining, China
  • 2 China Electric Power Research Institute (CEPRI), Beijing, China
  • 3 North China Electric Power University, Beijing, China

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    Under the dual-carbon target, hydrogen energy, as a zero-carbon secondary energy source, has great scope for replacing fossil feedstocks in the fields of energy, transportation and industry. However, the current research on the competitiveness of hydrogen energy in various fields is not sufficiently addressed. In this paper, we use the LEAP model to predict the future scale of hydrogen use and the two-factor learning curve to predict the trend of hydrogen price change from 2025 to 2050, using Qinghai Province as the research background. At the same time, considering the carbon emission reduction benefits and raw material costs, the competitiveness of hydrogen energy in energy, transportation, industry and other fields in the future is compared. The results show that: (1) The hydrogen load scale in Qinghai Province will grow fast from 2025 to 2030. From 2030 to 2040, it slows under the steady and basic scenarios but remains high under the accelerated one. By 2040, the consumption scales are 1.057 million, 649,000 and 442,000 tons respectively. (2) The price of hydrogen energy will drop rapidly from the current 28 CNY/kg to about 20 CNY/kg in the next five years. By 2040, the price of hydrogen energy will be reduced to about 17 CNY/kg. (3) In terms of hydrogen energy competitiveness, when carbon emissions are not taken into account, hydrogen energy is currently competitive in the transportation field. During 2032-2038, it will be competitive in the field of methanol synthesis. By 2040, hydrogen energy will not be competitive in the fields of ammonia synthesis and power/heating. When considering carbon emissions, the competitiveness of hydrogen energy in the transportation field will become greater. The competitive year in the field of methanol synthesis will be 1-2 years ahead. By 2040, it will not be competitive in the field of synthetic ammonia and power/heating, but the gap will be significantly reduced due to the consideration of carbon emissions.

    Keywords: hydrogen energy, LEAP model, Cost prediction, Learning Curve, Carbon emission reduction

    Received: 18 Jun 2024; Accepted: 12 Aug 2024.

    Copyright: © 2024 Li, Yu, Wang, Gou, Liu, Li, Wang, Zhang, Li and Zhang. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence: Outing Zhang, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, China

    Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.