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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Energy Res.
Sec. Bioenergy and Biofuels
Volume 12 - 2024 | doi: 10.3389/fenrg.2024.1403014

Scenario Analysis of the Long-term Impact on Energy Demand and Emissions of B10 Use as a Clean Transport Fuel

Provisionally accepted
Timothy Tibesigwa Timothy Tibesigwa *Peter W. Olupot Peter W. Olupot John B. Kirabira John B. Kirabira
  • Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    Sustainable energy sources are continually advocated as the globe strives to transition from nonrenewable forms. Energy security risks associated with the gradual depletion of petroleum resources and the related climate change effects require remedies. Nations have enacted laws stipulating biofuel blending mandates to reverse these adverse effects. Using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) software, this study assessed the potential long-term impact on energy demand and CO2 emissions from implementing B10 (10% biodiesel and 90% conventional diesel blend) in Uganda's petroleum sub-sector was assessed. Four scenarios were analysed from 2019 to 2050: baseline (100% fossil diesel), B10, B20 (20% biodiesel and 80% conventional diesel blend), and electric-powered transport, were analysed for 2019 to 2050. The analysis revealed that replacing fossil diesel with B10 reduces fossil-derived energy demand by 3.52% and projects an 8.38% reduction in CO2 emissions compared to the baseline scenario. The B20 and electric vehicle scenarios offer an even greater reduction. Specifically, the B20 scenario shows an 8.46% decrease, and the electric scenario shows a 9.98% decrease in fossil-derived energy demand. These reductions are attributed to the lower proportion of fossil fuels in biodiesel blends and the higher energy efficiency of electric vehicles. B10 use as a substitute fuel for diesel-powered vehicles is expected to mitigate transport sector emissions in Uganda with minimal impact on final energy demand. B20 and electrification scenarios with lower final energy demand and higher environmental impact reductions are more advantageous relative to the B10 and baseline scenarios. Future analyses should establish the optimal renewable fuel and vehicular technologies mix for a net zero scenario by 2050 for Uganda's transport sector.

    Keywords: Biodiesel, Clean Transport Fuels, energy demand, Emissions, LEAP

    Received: 18 Mar 2024; Accepted: 30 Jul 2024.

    Copyright: © 2024 Tibesigwa, Olupot and Kirabira. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence: Timothy Tibesigwa, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda

    Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.