AUTHOR=Strunge Till , Renforth Phil , Van der Spek Mijndert 

TITLE=Uncertainty quantification in the techno-economic analysis of emission reduction technologies: a tutorial case study on CO2 mineralization

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Energy Research

VOLUME=11

YEAR=2023

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/energy-research/articles/10.3389/fenrg.2023.1182969

DOI=10.3389/fenrg.2023.1182969

ISSN=2296-598X

ABSTRACT=<p>The pathways toward net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 should be designed based on solid scientific evidence. <italic>Ex ante</italic> system analysis tools, such as techno-economic assessments (TEAs), are key instruments to guide decision-makers. As <italic>ex ante</italic> TEAs of CO<sub>2</sub> mitigation technologies embody a high level of uncertainty, the informed use of uncertainty analysis becomes crucial for meaningful interpretation and communication of TEA outputs. To foster enhanced appreciation and the use of uncertainty analysis, we compare multiple uncertainty analysis methods for <italic>ex ante</italic> TEAs, using a case study on CO<sub>2</sub> mineralization in the cement industry. We show that local sensitivity analysis tools such as one-way analysis, which are most often used by TEA practitioners, may not suffice for deriving reliable conclusions and provide guidance on how to apply global sensitivity analysis methods, such as variance-based indicators for TEAs in this field.</p>