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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Endocrinol.
Sec. Clinical Diabetes
Volume 16 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fendo.2025.1500993
Association Between Estimated Glucose Disposal Rate and Prediabetes Reversion and Progression: A nationwide cohort study of middle-aged and elderly people in China
Provisionally accepted- 1 Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi Province, China
- 2 Jiangxi Provincial People's Hospital, Nanchang, Jiangxi Province, China
Objective: Prediabetes is a chronic condition characterized by elevated blood glucose levels that are not yet high enough to be classified as diabetes. It is particularly prevalent among middle-aged and elderly populations. This study aims to investigate the association between a novel marker of insulin resistance-the estimated glucose disposal rate (eGDR)-and the reversion of prediabetes to normoglycaemia or progression to diabetes in a Chinese population.Methods: This prospective cohort study utilized baseline data from the 2011 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study involving 2,600 prediabetic participants aged 45 years and older, along with follow-up data from 2015. The study’s endpoints were defined according to the American Diabetes Association criteria, including maintenance of the prediabetic state, reversion to normoglycaemia, or progression to diabetes. Multivariable Cox regression models and restricted cubic spline regression were used to assess the association between eGDR and the reversion or progression of prediabetes in middle-aged and elderly populations, followed by stratified analyses to explore potential population-specific dependencies.Results: Over a median follow-up period of 4 years, 1,615 (62.1%) participants remained in the prediabetic state, 586 (22.5%) reverted to normoglycaemia, and 399 (15.3%) progressed to diabetes. In multivariable Cox regression analyses, our results indicated that eGDR was positively associated with the reversion of prediabetes to normoglycaemia [Hazard Ratio = 1.14, 95% Confidence Interval: 1.05, 1.23], and negatively associated with the progression of prediabetes to diabetes (HR = 0.81, 95% CI: 0.70, 0.93). Restricted cubic spline analysis revealed a nonlinear, L-shaped association between eGDR and the reversion of prediabetes to normoglycaemia, with segmented Cox regression identifying an eGDR threshold of 6.81 as the point of significant change in the likelihood of prediabetes reversion.Conclusion: This prospective cohort study among middle-aged and elderly Chinese populations suggested that higher eGDR promoted the reversion of prediabetes and provided a protective effect against its progression to diabetes.
Keywords: Estimated glucose disposal rate, prediabetes to normoglycaemia, diabetes, cohort study, Chinese
Received: 24 Sep 2024; Accepted: 24 Feb 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Huang, He, Wang, Jian, Jiang, Lu, Sheng and Zou. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence:
Yang Zou, Jiangxi Provincial People's Hospital, Nanchang, 330006, Jiangxi Province, China
Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.