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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Endocrinol.
Sec. Cancer Endocrinology
Volume 16 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fendo.2025.1411426
Construction and validation of novel nomograms based on the log odds of positive lymph nodes to predict the prognosis of papillary thyroid cancer: a retrospective cohort study
Provisionally accepted- 1 Cixi People's Hospital, Ningbo, Zhejiang Province, China
- 2 Hebei North University, Zhangjiakou, Hebei Province, China
- 3 Air Force General Hospital PLA, Beijing, Beijing Municipality, China
This study aims to assess the long-term prognostic significance of the log odds of positive lymph nodes (LODDS) in patients diagnosed with papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) and to develop a novel nomogram for predicting long-term overall survival (OS).The cohort was randomly divided at a ratio of 7:3 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Additionally, patient data from a medical center in China served as an external validation cohort. Nomograms were constructed using data from the training cohort and subsequently validated using both internal and external validation cohorts to predict 120-and 180month OS in PTC patients. The predictive performance and clinical utility of the nomogram were assessed using various metrics, including the concordance index (C-index), time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, decision curve analysis (DCA), Integrated Discriminant Improvement Index (IDI), and Net Reclassification Improvement Index (NRI).LODDS is an independent prognostic factor for PTC, a nomogram demonstrating high accuracy in predicting long-term OS. The C-index values, and time-dependent area under the curve (AUC) indicated well discriminatory ability of the nomogram. Calibration plots exhibited high concordance, while DCA, NRI, and IDI analyses revealed superior performance of the nomogram compared to AJCC staging system.The clinical prediction model incorporating LODDS exhibits robust predictive performance, aiding in the assessment of long-term prognosis post-surgery in PTC patients. It serves as a valuable adjunct to the AJCC system, offering a scientific basis for guiding interventions and rehabilitation strategies for PTC patients following surgery.
Keywords: Papillary thyroid cancer, nomogram, SEER, Post-operative, long-term overall survival
Received: 20 Jun 2024; Accepted: 14 Feb 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Jing, Song, Di, Xiao, Ma and Wu. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence:
Jiazhao Song, Hebei North University, Zhangjiakou, 075000, Hebei Province, China
Jiajia Xiao, Hebei North University, Zhangjiakou, 075000, Hebei Province, China
Jianke Ma, Cixi People's Hospital, Ningbo, 315300, Zhejiang Province, China
Zimiao Wu, Cixi People's Hospital, Ningbo, 315300, Zhejiang Province, China
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