Skip to main content

ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Endocrinol.
Sec. Cardiovascular Endocrinology
Volume 15 - 2024 | doi: 10.3389/fendo.2024.1408691
This article is part of the Research Topic Precision Medicine in the Acute Care of Stroke View all 7 articles

Temporal Trends of Ischemic Stroke Attributable to High Fasting Plasma Glucose in China from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Provisionally accepted
Liangchen Tang Liangchen Tang Li Xie Li Xie Yixin Liu Yixin Liu *
  • The People's Hospital of Danyang, Affiliated Danyang Hospital of Nantong University, Danyang, China

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    Background Currently ischemic stroke poses a serious disease burden globally, and high fasting plasma glucose is one of the important risk factors. The aim of this study was to investigate the disease burden of ischemic stroke due to fasting glucose during 1990-2019 in China, to estimate the effect of age, period, and cohort on the trend of ischemic stroke disease burden, and to predict the disease burden of ischemic stroke in 2020-2030. Methods Ischemic stroke burden data were obtained by screening from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019) database for high-risk populations in China. Annual average percentage change (AAPC) was calculated using the Joinpoint regression model to assess the trend of ischemic stroke burden between 1990 and 2019. Age-period-cohort models were introduced to estimate the independent effects of age, period, and cohort on ischemic stroke burden, and to predict the ischemic stroke burden in 2020-2030 based on Bayesian age-period-cohort models. Results From 1990 to 2019, the number of ischemic stroke deaths due to high fasting plasma glucose in China continued to increase with an AAPC of 3.61. Trends in age-standardized incidence rates did not show statistical significance. In the age-period-cohort analysis, the age effect of ischemic stroke burden showed a continuously increasing trend over the study period. The period effect showed an overall favorable trend over the study period. The overall and cohort effects for males showed an overall increasing trend, whereas the cohort effect for females showed a decreasing trend after a decreasing trend for the 1945 birth cohort. Conclusions This study found that ischemic stroke due to high fasting plasma glucose in China has generally fluctuated between 1990 and 2019, with a decreasing trend in recent years, and projections also suggest that it will continue to show a decreasing trend in the future. Age and period of birth were the main elements influencing the burden of disease, especially among the elderly and men. Policies should be used to promote the prevention of known risk factors and to strengthen health management for key populations.

    Keywords: ischemic stroke, High fasting plasma glucose, disease burden, Age-period-cohort analyses, China

    Received: 28 Mar 2024; Accepted: 19 Jul 2024.

    Copyright: © 2024 Tang, Xie and Liu. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence: Yixin Liu, The People's Hospital of Danyang, Affiliated Danyang Hospital of Nantong University, Danyang, China

    Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.