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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Endocrinol.
Sec. Reproduction
Volume 15 - 2024 | doi: 10.3389/fendo.2024.1401385
This article is part of the Research Topic Insights in female reproductive longevity View all 5 articles

A nomogram model to predict the high risk of lower live birth probability in young women undergoing the first IVF-ET cycle : A retrospective study

Provisionally accepted
Chang Liu Chang Liu 1Peipei Pan Peipei Pan 1Beihai Li Beihai Li 2Yili Teng Yili Teng 1*
  • 1 First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang Province, China
  • 2 Yueqing Fifth People's Hospital, Wenzhou, China

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    Objective: To build a prediction nomogram for early prediction of live birth probabilities according to number of oocytes retreived in women ≤ 35 years of age.: A prediction model was built including 9265 infertile women ≤ 35 years of age accepting their first ovum pick-up cycle from January 2018 to December 2022. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was performed to identify independent predictors and establish a nomogram to predict reproductive outcomes. Both discrimination and calibration were assessed by bootstrapping with 1000 resamples. per ovum pick-up (OPU) cycle 删除[WPS_1530763115]: Logistic 删除[WPS_1530763115]: Results: The critical threshold for the number of retrieved oocytes associated with cumulative live birth was determined as 10.5 (AUC: 0.824). Consequently, a nomogram was constructed to predict the likelihood of obtaining fewer than 10 oocytes at one oocyte retrieval cycle. There were five indicators significantly related to the risk of obtaining less than 10 oocytes at one oocyte retrieval cycle, including age, antral follicle count (AFC), anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH), follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH), and FSH to luteinizing hormone ratio. These factors were subsequently used to develop a nomogram prediction model. The model's performance was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC), concordance index (C-index), and calibration curves, which indicated fair predictive ability and good calibration. Conclusion: We developed and validated a nomogram based on five ovarian reserve indicators to predict the risk of retrieving fewer than 10 oocytes at one oocyte retrieval cycle in women ≤ 35 years of age. The model demonstrated good discrimination and calibration, indicating its reliability for clinical application. This nomogram offers a practical and accurate tool for early identification of young women with potentially decreased ovarian reserve, enabling timely intervention and personalized management strategies.

    Keywords: diminished ovarian reserve, Live Birth, Ovum pick-up, Prediction nomogram, IVF/ICSI

    Received: 15 Mar 2024; Accepted: 03 Dec 2024.

    Copyright: © 2024 Liu, Pan, Li and Teng. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence: Yili Teng, First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, 325000, Zhejiang Province, China

    Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.