Low levels of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) are commonly seen in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). However, it is unclear whether there is an independent or causal link between HDL-C levels and T2DM. This study aims to address this gap by using the The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) database and Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis.
Data from the NHANES survey (2007-2018) with 9,420 participants were analyzed using specialized software. Logistic regression models and restricted cubic splines (RCS) were used to assess the relationship between HDL-C and T2DM incidence, while considering covariates. Genetic variants associated with HDL-C and T2DM were obtained from genome-wide association studies (GWAS), and Mendelian randomization (MR) was used to evaluate the causal relationship between HDL-C and T2DM. Various tests were conducted to assess pleiotropy and outliers.
In the NHANES study, all groups, except the lowest quartile (Q1: 0.28-1.09 mmol/L], showed a significant association between HDL-C levels and reduced T2DM risk (all P < 0.001). After adjusting for covariates, the Q2 [odds ratio (OR) = 0.67, 95% confidence interval (CI): (0.57, 0.79)], Q3 [OR = 0.51, 95% CI: (0.40, 0.65)], and Q4 [OR = 0.29, 95% CI: (0.23, 0.36)] groups exhibited average reductions in T2DM risk of 23%, 49%, and 71%, respectively. In the sensitivity analysis incorporating other lipid levels, the Q4 group still demonstrates a 57% reduction in the risk of T2DM. The impact of HDL-C levels on T2DM varied with age (P for interaction = 0.006). RCS analysis showed a nonlinear decreasing trend in T2DM risk with increasing HDL-C levels (P = 0.003). In the MR analysis, HDL-C levels were also associated with reduced T2DM risk (OR = 0.69, 95% CI = 0.52-0.82; P = 1.41 × 10-13), and there was no evidence of pleiotropy or outliers.
This study provides evidence supporting a causal relationship between higher HDL-C levels and reduced T2DM risk. Further research is needed to explore interventions targeting HDL-C levels for reducing T2DM risk.