Reliable predictive models for predicting excessive and poor ovarian response in controlled ovarian stimulation (COS) is currently lacking. The dynamic (Δ) inhibin B, which refers to increment of inhibin B responding to exogenous gonadotropin, has been indicated as a potential predictor of ovarian response.
To establish mathematical models to predict ovarian response at the early phase of COS using Δinhibin B and other biomarkers.
Prospective cohort study in a tertiary teaching hospital, including 669 cycles underwent standard gonadotropin releasing hormone (GnRH) antagonist ovarian stimulation between April 2020 and September 2020. Early Δinhibin B was defined as an increment in inhibin B from menstrual day 2 to day 6 through to the day of COS. Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) logistic regression with 5-fold cross-validation was applied to construct ovarian response prediction models. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), prevalence, sensitivity, and specificity were used for evaluating model performance.
Early Δinhibin B and basal antimüllerian hormone (AMH) levels were the best measures in building models for predicting ovarian hypo- or hyper-responses, with AUCs and ranges of 0.948 (0.887–0.976) and 0.904 (0.836–0.945) in the validation set, respectively. The contribution of the early Δinhibin B was 67.7% in the poor response prediction model and 56.4% in the excessive response prediction model. The basal AMH level contributed 16.0% in the poor response prediction model and 25.0% in the excessive response prediction model. An online website-based tool (
Early