Self-management of blood glucose levels to avoid hypoglycemia is vital for patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). The association between specific metrics of glycemic variability (glycosylated hemoglobin A1c [HbA1c] and fasting plasma glucose [FPG]) and severe hypoglycemia has not been fully studied in patients with T2DM.
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After adjusting for confounders, each increase in HbA1c variability of 1 standard deviation (SD) indicated a higher risk of HAA (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.10; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.03–1.16; P < 0.01) and HMA events (HR: 1.11; 95% CI: 1.03–1.20; P < 0.01). Meanwhile, each increase in FPG variability of 1 SD increased the risk of HAA (HR: 1.40; 95% CI: 1.31–1.49; P < 0.01) and HMA events (HR: 1.46; 95% CI: 1.35–1.57; P < 0.01). Meanwhile, models, including FPG variability, had better prognostic value for our predefined outcomes than HbA1c variability (P < 0.01).
Increased visit-to-visit variability in HbA1c and fasting glycemia is associated with a greater risk of severe hypoglycemic events in T2DM patients. FPG variability is a more sensitive indicator than HbA1c variability.