Habitat suitability modelling and range change dynamics of Bergenia stracheyi under projected climate change scenarios

Zishan Ahmad Wani ¹ Javid Ahmad Dar ^1* Aamir Nazir Lone ¹ Shreekar Pant ²

• ¹ SRM University, Amaravathi, Andhra Pradesh, India
• ² Baba Ghulam Shah Badshah University, Rajauri, Jammu and Kashmir, India

Prioritizing native and endemic species for conservation is fundamental to achieve larger broader objectives of safeguarding biodiversity, as these species are more pronevulnerable to extinction risks. Forecasting the climatic space niche of these species through species distribution models can be crucial for their habitat conservation and sustainable management in future. In the presentthis study, an ensemble modelling approach was used to predict the distribution of Bergenia stracheyi, a native alpine plant species of Himalayan region. The results revealed that the distribution of B. stracheyi is determined primarily influenced by Annual Mean Temperature (Bio1) and Annual Precipitation (Bio12). Ensemble model predictions revealed that under the current climatic conditions, the suitable habitats for B. stracheyi spread throughoutare distributed across higher elevations of Jammu and Kashmir and future ensemble model predictions indicated that, across all future climatic scenarios, the majority of the currently suitable habitats will remain suitable for the species in future. The model projects predicts a considerable increasesignificant expansion in suitable habitats for B. stracheyi, particularly under more severe climate change scenarios (RCP8.5). However, some areas currently identified as suitable, including parts of the Pir Panjal range and Mirpur (Pakistan), are predicted projected to become unsuitable for the species in the future. These shifts in plant distribution may have far-reaching consequences for ecosystem functioning and stability as well asand the services provided to human communities. Additionally, Tthese shifts may further lead to mismatches between the plant phenological events and pollinators leading to more devastating eventspotentially causing more ecological disruptions. Thus, the predicted range shifts in the distribution of B. stracheyi highlights the importance of local conservation measures to mitigate the impacts of climate change.