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BRIEF RESEARCH REPORT article

Front. Ecol. Evol.
Sec. Conservation and Restoration Ecology
Volume 12 - 2024 | doi: 10.3389/fevo.2024.1482783
This article is part of the Research Topic Conservation of the World’s Butterflies: Recent Advances in Science and Practice View all 5 articles

Measuring butterfly persistence in the face of deep uncertainty: a case study using the regal fritillary

Provisionally accepted
Max Post van der Burg Max Post van der Burg *
  • United States Geological Survey (USGS), United States Department of the Interior, Reston, United States

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    Scientists have documented effects of climate and land use change across a range butterfly species.However, incorporating future climate and land use change into butterfly conservation plans is a difficult task. These difficulties arise mainly from assumptions that future processes are the same as past processes (stationarity) and because scientists cannot reliably predict the future (deep uncertainty). In this case study, I used land use and climate change scenarios to compare possible futures for the regal fritillary, a grassland butterfly in the central United States. My analysis indicated that climate and land use change have the potential to influence species persistence, but that climate change has the larger effect. Moderate warming scenarios may improve the possibility of persistence, whereas extreme warming reduces this possibility. My analysis demonstrates the importance of considering nonstationarity and alternative plausible futures in butterfly conservation planning.

    Keywords: Regal fritillary, Climate Change, land use change, uncertainty, Decision Making

    Received: 18 Aug 2024; Accepted: 18 Oct 2024.

    Copyright: © 2024 Post van der Burg. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence: Max Post van der Burg, United States Geological Survey (USGS), United States Department of the Interior, Reston, United States

    Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.