AUTHOR=Jia Tao , Qi Yuhan , Zhao Haoxiang , Xian Xiaoqing , Li Jianyu , Huang Hongkun , Yu Wentao , Liu Wan-xue 

TITLE=Estimation of climate-induced increased risk of Centaurea solstitialis L. invasion in China: An integrated study based on biomod2

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution

VOLUME=11

YEAR=2023

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/ecology-and-evolution/articles/10.3389/fevo.2023.1113474

DOI=10.3389/fevo.2023.1113474

ISSN=2296-701X

ABSTRACT=<sec><title>Introduction</title><p>Invasive alien plants (IAPs) are major hazards to biodiversity, human health, and the agricultural economy. As one of the most aggressive species of IAPs, the distribution area of <italic>Centaurea solstitialis</italic> L. has increased exponentially in the past two years since its invasion into Xinjiang, China, in July 2014. Predicting the potential geographic distributions (PGDs) of <italic>C. solstitialis</italic> in China can provide theoretical support for preventing the continued spread of this weed.</p></sec><sec><title>Methods</title><p>In this study, based on 5,969 valid occurrence records of <italic>C. solstitialis</italic> and 33 environmental variables, we constructed an ensemble model to predict suitable habitats for <italic>C. solstitialis</italic> under climate change scenarios.</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p>Our results showed that the mean true skill statistic (TSS) values, area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), and Cohen’s Kappa (KAPPA) for the ensemble model were 0.954, 0.996, and 0.943, respectively. The ensemble model yielded more precise predictions than those of the single model. Temperature seasonality (Bio4), minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6), precipitation of the driest month (Bio14), and human influence index (HII) have significantly disrupted the PGDs of <italic>C. solstitialis</italic> in China. The total (high) suitability habitat area of <italic>C. solstitialis</italic> in China was 275.91 × 10<sup>4</sup> (67.78 × 10<sup>4</sup>) km<sup>2</sup>, accounting for 71.26 (7.06)% of China. The PGDs of <italic>C. solstitialis</italic> in China under the current climate were mainly in East China (Shandong, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Anhui), Central China (Henan, southwestern Shanxi, southern Shaanxi, southern Gansu, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, Chongqing, and Guizhou), and South China (southern Tibet, eastern Sichuan, Yunnan, Guangxi, Guangdong, Fujian, and Taiwan). Under future climate scenarios, the total suitability habitat area for <italic>C. solstitialis</italic> will expand, whereas the high suitability habitat area will decrease.</p></sec><sec><title>Discussion</title><p>The main manifestation is that the shift of southeast China into a moderate suitability habitat, and the total suitability habitats will be extended to northwest China. More focus needs to be placed on preventing further spread of <italic>C. solstitialis</italic> in northwest China.</p></sec>